Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Jump After Inflation Gauge Cools

A Friday surge pushed stocks solidly into positive territory last week, ignited by cooling in an inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.01%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.02% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.74%.^1,2,3

Stocks Pop

Stocks were flat for much of last week amid a batch of new earnings, a 0.25% interest rate hike, and strong economic data. After beginning with gains, stocks lost momentum following the Fed’s expected rate-hike announcement on Wednesday. A bounce on Thursday sparked by a positive mega-cap tech company earnings reversed after bond yields increased. 

Stocks recovered strongly Friday on the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, which fell to its lowest level in two years.⁴

Much of the market action was related to earnings results. With 44% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 78% have exceeded Wall Street forecasts.⁵

Recession Deferred

Expectations of a recession were high coming into 2023. Last week may have erased this recession narrative overhang. 

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data released last week was one big reason why. Economic activity expanded by 2.4%, which was above the forecast of two percent and represented an acceleration from its first quarter GDP of 2.0%. Consumer spending was a major driver of that expansion, rising 1.6%.⁶

Joining the recession-deferred camp this week was Fed Chair Powell, who stated that the Fed was no longer forecasting a recession.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. 

Friday: Employment Situation.

^{Source: Econoday, July 28, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Pfizer, Inc. (PFE), Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU), Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

Wednesday: CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM), PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL), Shopify, Inc. (SHOP), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Humana, Inc. (HUM)

Thursday: Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Block, Inc. (SQ), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Cigna Group (CI), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Booking Holdings, Inc. (BKNG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)

Friday: EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

^{Source: Zacks, July 28, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

"I have found the paradox that if I love until it hurts, then there is no hurt, but only more love."

– Mother Teresa

Who Qualifies for the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit?

Let's outline who the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) defines as a qualifying person under this care credit:

• A taxpayer’s dependent who is under the age of 13 when the care is provided.
• A taxpayer’s spouse who cannot care for themselves has lived with the taxpayer for more than half the year.

In addition to spouses and dependents, the credit may also cover someone who is mentally or physically unable to care for themselves and lives with the taxpayer for six months. This is the case if that person was the taxpayer's dependent or if they would have been the taxpayer's dependent except for one of the following:

• The qualifying person received a gross income of $4,400 or more.
  
• The qualifying person filed a joint return.
  
• If filing jointly, the taxpayer or spouse could be claimed as dependent on someone else’s return.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

Healthy Summer Tips

Staying healthy this summer will help you enjoy the season even more. Here are some of our favorite healthy summer tips:

• Stay safe in the sun, and always wear sunscreen. Use an SPF 30 or above with both UVA and UVB protection. If possible, hang out in shaded areas.
• Challenge your family and friends to some healthy competition, like a game of capture the flag, a scavenger hunt, volleyball, flag football, or dodgeball.
• Eat smart by indulging in a few of your favorite foods but still making healthy choices. Swap red meat out for chicken, choose fruits and veggies instead of chips, and eat sweets sparingly. Countless healthy barbecue and cookout recipes are delicious and will still satisfy that summer picnic spirit.

So what are you waiting for? Get out there and enjoy some summer swimming, games, or your favorite healthy snacks.

Tip adapted Prevent Cancer Foundation⁸

This word signifies a gap between hills or mountain ranges. Yet remove just one letter, and it signifies a gap between buildings. What is this six-letter word?

Last week’s riddle: Sometimes you pass me slowly, yet other times I fly by. Sometimes I slip away. Regardless of how slow or fast I am, one thing’s certain: when I’m gone, I’m gone for good. So what am I? Answer: Time.

Taktshang (Tiger's Nest Monastery), Kingdom of Bhutan

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2023.}

^{4. CNBC, July 28, 2023.}

^{5. CNBC, July 27, 2023.}

^{6. CNBC, July 27, 2023.}

^{7. IRS.gov, May 1, 2023}

^{8. Prevent Cancer Foundation, April 24, 2023}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}